Mainstreaming Methodology for Estimating Costs of Crime
Much of the theoretical law and economics literature relies on the idea of it being possible to estimate the costs of crime. Most models assume that policy makers are seeking to choose policy parameters that will minimise the social costs of crime. In order to implement the findings of such models it is important that estimates are available of the principal components of the costs of crime and that estimates can be made of how these various costs will change in response to policy adjustments.
In the Policy Applications part of the site we look at two examples of policy decisions where costs of crime estimates may play a significant role.
Bail decisions require a balancing of the risks that individuals arrested for an offence may commit crime if they are released on bail and the costs of detaining them in prison. The costs of the crime committed by those on bail thus have to be weighed against the prison cost savings, the savings from not locking up the innocent and so on. Will locking up a suspected murderer reduce the risk of further serious crime sufficiently to justify the prison costs?
Sentencing decisions likewise require the balancing of various cost elements. For example, suppose consideration is being given to a lengthening of terms of imprisonment. This would increase the costs to the criminal justice system via the extra costs of imprisoning offenders. But it might also strengthen the deterrent effect of punishments and thereby reduce the volume (and thus the victim costs) of crime. Is it worth it?
There are few policy areas where such issues do not arise. The better the cost of crime estimates that are available, the easier it will be to identify the terms of the trade-offs between policy change and social welfare outcomes.
There are close links between these kinds of modelling exercises and the economic evaluation methodology reviewed elsewhere in the site. The principal difference is that the policy modelling tends to be hypothetical while evaluation methodology is applied to particular real-world experiments that have already been started.
